Hiring in uncertain times: What the latest jobs data means for employers

Despite ongoing global instability and persistently high oil prices, New Zealand’s labour market continues to show resilience, particularly for employers willing to embrace flexible hiring strategies.

The latest Jobs Report from Employment Hero reveals that employment growth remained solid in March 2026, increasing 5.8% year-on-year. While this represents a slight dip from February’s 6.8% growth, it still signals that businesses are continuing to hire, even amid uncertain economic conditions.

More notably for employers, job openings have held steady. Vacancies rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and are up 0.7% compared to three months ago, an encouraging sign that demand for labour has not stalled.

A key driver behind this resilience is the surge in casual employment. Casual roles have jumped 18.3% year-on-year, alongside a 3.3% increase since December and a further 0.7% lift month-on-month. This trend highlights a clear shift in how businesses are managing workforce needs in a volatile environment.

Neil Webster, General Manager NZ at Employment Hero, explains the reasoning behind this shift:

“While it is positive to see employment growth holding up in the face of increasing global pressures, it is clear that employers are seeking out workers for casual and part-time positions rather than full-time work. This comes amid high levels of uncertainty and an unclear economic outlook.”

For business owners, this reflects a growing preference for flexibility. Casual and part-time roles allow organisations to respond to fluctuations in demand while limiting long-term financial commitments.

However, the report also highlights important wage trends that employers should consider. Wage growth for casual workers declined by -1.6% month-on-month, while full-time wages remained flat. 

According to Webster: “Interestingly, the data shows wage growth for casual workers is down -1.6% MoM but flat for full-time staff. This could be driven by high unemployment, taking wage pressures off employers.”

This environment may provide some short-term cost relief for employers, particularly those relying on casual labour. However, it also suggests a competitive labour market where job seekers may have fewer bargaining advantages.

Part-time employment tells a slightly different story. While it declined by -1.5% month-on-month in March, it remains strong year-on-year, up 5.6%. This significantly outpaces full-time employment growth, which sits at just 1.1% annually—further reinforcing the shift toward more flexible work arrangements.

Regional trends employers should watch

Regional differences are playing a major role in shaping hiring conditions.

The South Island is currently leading employment growth, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase and a 1.2% rise in March alone. This compares with more modest gains in the North Island, where employment grew 3.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month.

Wage growth follows a similar pattern. The South Island recorded a 2.8% annual increase, nearly keeping pace with inflation and a strong 1.2% lift in March. Meanwhile, the North Island lagged behind with just 1.1% annual wage growth and 0.4% month-on-month.

Within the South Island, Canterbury stands out as a key hotspot for employers and job seekers alike. The region saw wages rise 2.9% year-on-year and 1.8% in March compared to February.

“While wages are certainly looking more positive for workers in Canterbury, the story is very different for other areas of the South Island and the North Island, where wage increases are falling significantly behind inflation, leaving workers worse off,” Webster says.

For employers, this creates a mixed landscape: while some regions may require more competitive pay to attract talent, others may offer opportunities to hire without significantly increasing wage costs.

Balancing growth and cost pressures

Although casual roles are booming, they are also experiencing the slowest wage growth. Casual wages rose just 1.2% year-on-year, compared with 2.9% for part-time roles and 2.6% for full-time employees.

This divergence underscores a broader challenge facing businesses.

Webster notes that current trends point to “a market where employers’ margins are increasingly squeezed, and they’re trying to find ways to meet customer demand and expectations without significantly increasing their labour costs and risk.”

In practice, this means many businesses are adopting more agile workforce strategies, leveraging casual hiring, adjusting hours and carefully managing wage growth to protect profitability.

Early signs of improvement in Wellington

There are also tentative signs of recovery in Wellington’s job market. Employment growth in the capital was flat year-on-year but edged up 0.3% compared to February.

Wages are also beginning to recover, rising 0.8% in March. While still below inflation, this marks a notable improvement from the -1.3% decline reported the previous month.

For employers in the region, this could indicate a gradual stabilisation, with improving conditions for both hiring and employee retention.